Predictions That Will Change the World by Vinod Khosla

We will be capable of having near-free AI doctors for every person and AI tutors for every child 24/7. This is likely the most plausible prediction among the ones presented.

We are on the cusp of seeing this become a reality, thanks to the advancements in large language models and artificial intelligence. The entirety of human knowledge can now be packaged in a file size of just a few gigabytes. This means that any type of knowledge work, whether it's software engineering, marketing, or creative tasks, could be replaced or highly complemented by large language models very soon.

The implications of this are two-fold. On one hand, everyone will have access to cutting-edge expertise in almost any field. This democratization of knowledge could empower individuals to solve complex problems on their own, without the need to consult experts.

On the other hand, this raises questions about the future of experts and knowledge workers. While there will still be a need for the cutting-edge, bleeding-edge of knowledge and expertise discovery, the majority of routine knowledge work may be automated. This could significantly disrupt traditional career paths and the job market.

Interestingly, this prediction challenges the common notion that blue-collar workers would be the first to be replaced by automation. Instead, it suggests that thought workers, such as coders and creatives, may be the ones most impacted in the near-term. Meanwhile, the ability to work with one's hands may become a more valuable skill, as simple tasks remain difficult for robots to master.

We will have a billion bipedal and other robots freeing humans from the servitude of undesirable jobs. This is an exciting prediction, but one that I'm not as hopeful about in the near future.

The idea of having a billion workers that are willing to work for free in the next 10 years seems far-fetched. However, in the next 10-25 years, this could become a reality.

The impact of this would be enormous. Productivity would skyrocket, potentially solving major economic problems like the growing debt in the US. However, it also raises significant challenges. With so many jobs being automated, what will all the displaced workers do? Finding purpose and a sense of meaning outside of traditional employment will be crucial.

Additionally, the ability of robots to handle even simple tasks like connecting wires is still quite limited compared to human capabilities. While robots will continue to improve, there is still a significant gap between human dexterity and what current robotics can achieve.

Overall, the idea of near-free labor through a vast network of robots is an intriguing prediction, but the timeline and the societal implications require careful consideration. The transition to such a future would need to be managed thoughtfully to ensure it benefits humanity as a whole.

There will be a billion plus programmers all programming in natural language, dramatically increasing the scope of computers. Computers will adapt to humans, not humans to computers.

The short and mid-term future will see a huge influx of programmers, as natural language programming becomes more accessible. However, in the long run, there may not be programmers at all - humans will simply speak to AI systems directly, without the need for an intermediary layer of software.

Today's programming languages are designed to be human-readable, as our brains struggle to work with more efficient, but alien-looking, symbolic languages. As AI takes over more of the actual code creation, the underlying programming languages may evolve to be much more compact and optimized, looking foreign to human eyes.

There will still need to be translation layers to allow humans to understand and interact with these AI-generated programs. But the core programming may diverge significantly from what we recognize as code today. The end goal is not a billion human programmers, but a future where coding is no longer a human task at all.

AI will play a significant role in the future of entertainment and design. Some key points:

• Music and entertainment will be plentiful and personalized for each individual user. The content will be dynamically created based on your mood and preferences.

• The diversity of content and creativity will increase, as AI systems are able to generate a wide variety of personalized experiences.

• The celebrity-fan relationship may change, as AI-generated personalities could become the new "celebrities" that people connect with. It's unclear how this dynamic will evolve.

• AI will be heavily involved in the design and creation of entertainment, from music composition to visual effects and animation. This will enable a level of personalization and customization that was not possible before.

• Overall, the future of entertainment will be characterized by an abundance of content that is tailored to each user's individual tastes and needs. AI will be the driving force behind this highly personalized and adaptive entertainment landscape.

Vard Kosla predicts that most consumer access of the internet will be through agents acting on behalf of consumers. He foresees tens of billions of agents on the internet being normal.

This aligns with Yan LeCun's recent comments that people will need their own AI agents to protect themselves against misinformation, disinformation, and other online threats. The agents will filter information and perform tasks on the user's behalf.

While this agent-based internet access has benefits, it also raises concerns. There are questions about how to ensure the agents provide unbiased information and how to maintain transparency if the underlying programming becomes too complex for humans to understand.

Open source solutions may help address these challenges by allowing the algorithms to be scrutinized. However, if the programming languages evolve to become very foreign to humans, it could still be difficult to audit the agents' decision-making.

Overall, Kosla's prediction of a shift to agent-based internet access seems plausible given the growing need to manage the overwhelming amount of online information and activity. But implementing this in a trustworthy manner will be a significant challenge that will need to be carefully addressed.

We will be capable of providing Precision Care based on Pati omics as well as AI models for each individual, enabling simulation of each body for Therapeutics dosages, Etc.

This prediction suggests a future where medicine will transition from a practice-based approach to a more scientific, personalized approach. Key points:

• Precision Care: Medical care will be tailored to the individual's unique genetic and biological profile (Pati omics).
• AI Models: Detailed AI models will be created for each person, simulating their specific body and physiology.
• Personalized Therapeutics: These AI models will enable precise dosing and optimization of treatments for the individual.

This shift represents a move towards truly personalized medicine, where care is customized based on the patient's own data and characteristics, rather than relying on generalized population-based approaches. The use of AI and advanced modeling techniques will be crucial in enabling this level of personalization and precision in healthcare.

While the author notes this is an area he has not thought about extensively, the potential benefits are significant - from more effective treatments to reduced side effects and improved outcomes for patients. As AI and biotechnology continue to advance, this vision of a more scientific, data-driven approach to medicine may very well become a reality in the coming decades.

We will have much better alternate protein production to replace traditional animal protein. Whether that's synthetic proteins, plant-based proteins, or even insects, the taste will far exceed that of traditional animal-based proteins.

The environmental impact of traditional animal agriculture is significant, so exploring alternative protein sources is crucial. While current synthetic and plant-based options may not fully replicate the taste of meat, the technology is rapidly improving. As these alternatives become more palatable and cost-effective, they could start displacing traditional animal proteins.

Additionally, we will see advancements in new food and fertilizer production. This could include innovations in vertical farming, hydroponics, and other sustainable agriculture techniques that reduce the reliance on traditional farming methods. The goal is to increase food production while minimizing the environmental footprint.

Overall, the predictions around new food and fertilizers point to a future where we can satisfy our protein and nutritional needs in a more sustainable way, without sacrificing taste or quality.

We could replace the majority of cars in cities with personal autonomous transit as on-demand, affordable public transit, increasing street throughput dramatically. This is something I do believe in. On August 8th, Tesla is going to introduce their Robo taxi concept, so it is definitely going to happen.

As autonomous driving gets better and better, and we solve that last 10-20% of autonomous driving, we're going to find that we're able to utilize vehicles much more than they're currently being utilized today. The stat is that on average, a vehicle sits unused 90-95% of the day, which is kind of insane to think about all those cars out there doing nothing.

I would love it if I could simply get dropped off somewhere and my car goes and does something else, and then I pay a fraction of the total cost of the car. Look, I grew up in LA, so I'm very into the car culture, I love having a car. But I do see a very useful future, starting with busy cities, where the autonomous vehicle, the shared autonomous vehicle, is very popular. We're already seeing some of that with Waymo in San Francisco, and I think they have a few other cities that they're operating in. But that could be a very exciting future and start to decongest our very crowded infrastructure.

We will have Mach 5 planes that get us from New York City to London in 90 minutes on sustainable aviation fuel, making the world closer.

This prediction sounds exciting, but it also faces some historical challenges. We had the Concorde decades ago, which could fly at supersonic speeds, but it was retired due to the high fuel costs, making it uneconomical.

Aviation innovation has stalled for decades, with planes actually going slower than they did in the past, largely due to the high fuel costs.

If this prediction comes true, it would be wonderful, as it would significantly reduce travel times and bring the world closer together. However, the feasibility of achieving Mach 5 flight on sustainable fuel remains to be seen. Overcoming the technical and economic hurdles that have hindered previous attempts at high-speed air travel will be crucial for this prediction to become a reality.

Vard Kosla predicts that by 2050, we will have clean dispatchable electric power. He believes that fusion boilers will retrofit and replace coal and natural gas boilers, reducing the need to build whole new fusion plants. Additionally, super-hot geothermal is also seen as a real alternative.

This prediction suggests a future where our electricity generation will be cleaner and more sustainable. The shift from fossil fuel-based power to fusion and geothermal sources could significantly reduce carbon emissions and provide a more reliable and abundant supply of electricity.

The key aspects of this prediction are:

1. Fusion Boilers: Kosla believes that fusion technology will advance to the point where it can be used to retrofit and replace existing coal and natural gas power plants. This could provide a more efficient and environmentally-friendly way to generate electricity without the need for building entirely new power plants.

2. Geothermal Power: Super-hot geothermal energy is also highlighted as a viable alternative to traditional power sources. This renewable energy technology taps into the Earth's natural heat to generate electricity, offering a clean and sustainable option.

3. Reduced Need for New Power Plants: With the adoption of fusion boilers and geothermal power, the need to build new power plants from scratch may be reduced, potentially leading to cost savings and faster deployment of clean energy solutions.

Overall, this prediction paints a future where our electricity grid is powered by cleaner, more efficient, and more sustainable energy sources, reducing our reliance on fossil fuels and contributing to a more environmentally-friendly energy landscape.

We will discover more natural resources than we consume and prove resource dors wrong on lithium, cobalt, copper, and other key materials. This prediction sounds promising, but the author expresses some skepticism about it.

The author notes that it's unclear why these resources haven't been discovered yet if they are indeed plentiful. Any new techniques required to extract these resources may also have unintended side effects.

Overall, the author is hopeful about this prediction but acknowledges a lack of knowledge about the science behind it. The need for these resources, especially for batteries and renewable energy, is growing rapidly. However, the author remains doubtful about whether this prediction will fully come to fruition given the current challenges around resource discovery and extraction.

If we have time, carbon emissions could be a smaller issue because entrepreneurs will develop and scale better technologies for cement, steel, agriculture, transportation, power production, direct air capture (DAC), and more.

This prediction sounds promising, as it aligns with the belief that technological innovation can provide solutions to address environmental challenges like carbon emissions. The key caveats are "if we have time" and the ability of entrepreneurs to develop and scale the necessary technologies.

Some key points:

• New technologies for cement, steel, agriculture, transportation, and power production can help reduce carbon emissions from these sectors.
• Direct air capture (DAC) technologies that can actively remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere offer a potential solution.
• Entrepreneurial innovation and the ability to scale these technologies will be critical to making meaningful progress on reducing carbon emissions.
• However, the timeline for developing and deploying these solutions at scale remains uncertain, which is why the prediction is qualified with "if we have time."

Overall, this prediction reflects a techno-optimistic view that human ingenuity and entrepreneurship can create the technologies needed to address the carbon emissions challenge, provided there is sufficient time and support for these efforts.